Analyzing BJP's Surprising Defeat in Uttar Pradesh: Key Factors and Implications

 

The dismal showing of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh surprises both those who trusted exit polls and those who felt that Yogi Adityanath, the state's chief minister, was well-liked by all facets of society because of his strict management style. While confirming the aspirations of the non-BJP faction, the final count of 36 seats for the BJP and its allies and 43 seats for the Samajwadi Party-Congress coalition has disappointed BJP supporters. It's difficult to accept the BJP's defeat in Uttar Pradesh given its impressive results in nearby states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar, and Jharkhand.

Akhilesh Yadav has gained prominence in the opposition hierarchy, second only to Rahul Gandhi, thanks to the Samajwadi Party (SP)'s 37 seats, which have placed it second in terms of total seats, behind the BJP coalition. In the state, the SP has gained the most seats and is now the leading party. But even with this big victory, Akhilesh still has to settle for being on the losing side. His reputation among rival parties like the TMC, DMK, and AAP has also increased as a result of this triumph.

For the Congress, these outcomes validate Rahul Gandhi's leadership, which had been called into doubt because of the party's persistent electoral defeats. During his evening press conference, Rahul also gave his sister Priyanka credit for her role in the party's success.

These results have dispelled the notion that Uttar Pradesh had turned into a BJP bastion. It is also noteworthy that Yogi Adityanath and Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost in eastern Uttar Pradesh, where they were thought to have considerable influence from Varanasi and Gorakhpur, respectively. In addition, the loss in Ayodhya is a huge setback considering the substantial infrastructural development and the dedication of the Ram Temple. The BJP has performed poorly due to a number of other problems, such as frequent disruptions of recruitment examinations, paper leaks, youth disenchantment, a lack of job creation, and rising unemployment. For farmers and rural residents, the threat posed by stray animals has grown to be a major concern because it consistently damages crops.

In contrast to the SP and BSP, the BJP also lost some seats as a result of their poor choice of candidates and unwillingness to switch them mid-term. Low voter turnout was also caused by apathy among party employees and sympathizers in numerous cities and towns.

The BJP's platform included the construction of the Ram Temple, the abolition of appeasement policies, enhanced peace and order, the prevention of religious riots, a rise in industrial investment, the construction of large-scale infrastructure projects including highways, airports, and expressways, and improved cooperation with the national government. The Ram Temple is no longer a major electoral issue, according to the results, and is instead viewed as a cultural and religious site akin to any other pilgrimage destination.

The opposition, on the other hand, concentrated on caste concerns and promised, among other things, to conduct a caste census. Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi reaffirmed this commitment in their united state-wide campaign. When Rahul Gandhi was with Akhilesh, it enhanced his influence, particularly among the youth, as the pair represented the unity of the opposition.

The BJP was also negatively impacted by the distrust of OBCs and Dalits on potential government meddling with the Constitution and reservation system should it win a second term. Unlike in 2014 and 2019, when Modi's personality nearly transcended caste divisions and received great support from the majority community, the campaign revealed the limited appeal of polarization and highlighted the vital significance of caste.

 In contrast to its success in Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi led a historic win in 2022 and a notable victory in 2017, the BJP performed well in states like Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, where it had never held power. However, in 2024, the party faced defeat in an undefined manner.

One may claim that the party's dismal result is due to some very internal issues. Disagreement inside the party and between the party and the government over a number of issues is another factor that may surface in the next days. Yogi Adityanath has developed a reputation as a popular loud leader over the last five years. Regarding his position in the national leadership, there were rumors. Additionally, there are hints that many of Yogi Adityanath's recommended candidates were rejected, and the party suffered from the outcomes in these constituencies. Party insiders claim that this exacerbated internal divisions by lowering employee morale and excitement.

It is anticipated that all of these topics will be covered when the party evaluates how well it performed in the state. In the days ahead, the Yogi Adityanath government's performance will also be closely scrutinized, notwithstanding the historic victory in 2022. There may be debate about Yogi's governance approach, which combines swift decision-making, gang dismantling, and bulldozer action. Uttar Pradesh's new role in the grand scheme of things will become clear with the reorganization of the state council of ministers, the reorganization of the bureaucracy, and comparable reforms at the federal level.